There’s an old saying in poker: If you’re in a three-way poker game and you don’t know who the sucker is… you’re the sucker. The idea is that in a three-handed game, two players will disadvantage the sucker by coordinating their betting and not raising each other. Eventually, the sucker is cleaned out and the
Jurisdictions around the world are running out of money. That’s because they waste the tax revenue they get, and they can’t get more revenue because growth is slow. Of course, imposing more taxes slows growth even more, but that never seems to deter governments from trying. Meanwhile, debt burdens grow faster than the economy so
Several years ago, I had the honor of joining Mahathir Mohamad and a small group to celebrate his 90th birthday at a restaurant in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur. Mahathir was the longest-serving prime minister in Malaysian history, having been in office 22 years, from 1981–2003. When we met in 2015, he was retired.
A lot of the criticism of Trump’s trade war tactics with China is based on a misunderstanding of the dynamics of global trade and global supply chains. When the U.S. imports goods from China and then imposes a tariff, the analysts simply multiply the quantity of goods by the size of the tariff and proclaim
Much of the early exploration by Europeans of New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces was not based on a desire to settle and farm but was driven by a search for the “Northwest Passage.” This was the name given to a hypothetical sea route from the Atlantic to the Pacific somewhere between North America
In recent issues of Five Links, I’ve expressed my estimate that China will not cut off exports of rare earths to the U.S. as a way of fighting the trade wars. (Rare earths are metallic elements than can be used in pure form or combined to produce critical components for electronics and automobiles. They
The phrase “Don’t say we didn’t warn you” may be a cliché in English but the Chinese equivalent is anything but. The Chinese used this phrase in 1962 just before they went to war with India. They used it again in 1979 just before they went to war with Vietnam. And they just used it
I’m not surprised that Trump supporters believe he’s going to win reelection in 2020. What’s amazing is the number of Democrats and Trump opponents who think the same thing. This article is a survey of recent model outputs that show Trump is a clear favorite in the 2020 presidential election. Models are not polls. Instead, they take
The U.S. and Chinese governments have made their views on the ongoing trade wars clear. The U.S. insists that China is breaking all the rules and China insists that they will not allow the U.S. to dictate the operation of their economy. What about the global elites? They are watching from the sidelines since the
The odds of an impeachment of President Trump by the House of Representatives fluctuate daily. There is a large group of House Democrats who firmly want impeachment and are ready to begin the hearings tomorrow. There is another large group of moderate Democrats, many newly elected, who want to keep away from impeachment and instead
